But we can no longer afford to increase food production through agricultural expansion. [23] https://www.newwavefoods.com/ [21] https://www.impossiblefoods.com/ Trading tropical forest for farmland is one of the most destructive things we do to the environment, and it is rarely done to benefit the 850 million people in the world who are still hungry. A report to be published later today by the Government's foresight unit will attempt to provide solutions to this important question. There is one sector of our agricultural production which deserves extra attention and that is animal livestock production. Fortunately, there are exciting, high-impact solutions that are shaping the future of food. This month I will discuss additional issues. It is not just people eating meat, but also pets. Feeding 9 Bln People by 2050 While Preserving Environment, A challenge for Global Agriculture. Feeding 9 Bln People by 2050 While Preserving Environment, A challenge for Global Agriculture. [16] http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.html Step Three: Use Resources More Efficiently. Warming temperatures are enabling the spread of agricultural pests to new latitudes[12],  and rising CO2 levels are resulting in ocean acidification, which among other effects reduce the productivity of shellfish like oysters [13], thus endangering whole ecosystems and valuable food sources. How might farmers feed a population of 2050 whilst using fewer natural resources? Given the massive and growing global demand for meat and the outsized concentration of agricultural resources dedicated to its production, livestock rearing should be the top priority in efforts to improve the sustainability of food production. We work to offer objective, evidence-based information in an accessible manner for all. With the world's population predicted to reach 9 billion people by the year 2050, issues related to global food security have taken on a growing urgency. Jonathan Foley directs the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota. Much of the growth will actually come from Sub-Saharan Africa itself as by 2050 as the continent’s population is expected to double and the per capita GDP income being expected to triple . January 15, 2019. To feed that population, crop production will need to double. All maps and graphics: Virginia W. Mason and Jason Treat, NGM Staff. The green revolution relied on the intensive—and unsustainable—use of water and fossil-fuel-based chemicals. Feeding the Population by 2050 Labor shortages, environmental impacts, resource constraints and more extreme weather conditions are already threatening global food security. Feeding nine billion people by 2050 would be much more tangible if more of the crops we grew ended up in the stomachs of humans. In poor countries food is often lost between the farmer and the market, due to unreliable storage and transportation. Increasing food production today while preserving tomorrow’s … Insect protein, already a common food in many cultures around the world, is now being used to offset traditional meat in pet food. We need to make connections between our food and the farmers who grow it, and between our food and the land, watersheds, and climate that sustain us. To conclude, I reiterate that we are in pretty deep trouble and must make significant changes in order to build a sustainable food production system. Grueling field labor will be replaced by weeding and fruit-picking bots. The world can now turn its attention to increasing yields on less productive farmlands—especially in Africa, Latin America, and eastern Europe—where there are “yield gaps” between current production levels and those possible with improved farming practices. Nearly all of this population increase will occur in developing countries. Advances in both conventional and organic farming can give us more “crop per drop” from our water and nutrients. Jim Richardson’s portraits of farmers are the latest in his body of work documenting agriculture. Food is one such area. By 2050 there will be over 9 billion people on the planet, but will our current food systems be able to feed everyone? Brentano is co-founder and CEO of Tiny Farms Inc., an agritech precision-farming company that combines natural systems, proprietary production methods, and processing technology to produce cost-effective cricket protein at scale. Using high-tech, precision farming systems, as well as approaches borrowed from organic farming, we could boost yields in these places several times over. Wilson, a contestant on a celebrity edition of the Food Network show Chopped, had just been challenged to create an appetizer with salmon, avocados, sweet tea—and flour made of ground-up crickets. Starting in the 1960s, the green revolution increased yields in Asia and Latin America using better crop varieties and more fertilizer, irrigation, and machines—but with major environmental costs. The world will be home to nine billion people by 2050 and anticipated higher incomes will increase per-capita consumption. There is also a huge opportunity to replace the meat used in pet food with insect protein. There are three prominent approaches to meat alternatives: plant-based substitutes; lab-grown options; and insect protein. Meryl Williams One alarming study even predicted a complete collapse of all commercial fisheries by 2050 [11]. Pet ownership is also increasing around the world, fueling growth in the global pet food market at a rate of 5% CAGR from 2010 to 2017 [19]. Populations are increasingly shifting to cities, with 54% of the world population currently living in urban areas, which is expected to reach 66% by 2050 [16]. An estimated 25 percent of the world’s food calories and up to 50 percent of total food weight are lost or wasted before they can be consumed. The good news is that we already know what we have to do; we just need to figure out how to do it. Many farmers have also gotten smarter about water, replacing inefficient irrigation systems with more precise methods, like subsurface drip irrigation. Feeding 9 billion by 2050 – Putting fish back on the menu. By the year 2050, experts predict the world population will rise to 9 billion. [10] http://www.pnas.org/content/108/20/8317 Photo by Larry Oien. These issues are addressed in turn below. Nearly all new food production in the next 25 years will have to come from existing agricultural land. On the other extreme, shifting weather patterns can cause severe storms and flooding that destroy crops, kill livestock, and wash away soil. The third big solution for crop production is improved genetics. Indoor agriculture removes nature from the equation altogether, and Japan is a leading pioneer in this field with the world’s largest indoor plant factories producing tens of thousands of heads of lettuce every day. March 2015; Food Security 7(2) DOI: 10.1007/s12571-015-0427-z. Last month we examined several of the issues associated with feeding a global population of nine billion people (two billion more than our current population) by 2050. Feeding 9 billion by 2050 – Putting fish back on the menu. All rights reserved. 2050: HOW TO FEED 9 BILLION PEOPLE The United Nations estimates that by 2050 the planet will be home to 9.6 billion people—2 billion more than our current population. [6] http://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/miga/chart-globally-70-freshwater-used-agriculture Maps, source: Global Landscapes Initiative, Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota. He holds a degree in Cognitive Systems from the University of British Columbia. Addressing our global food challenges demands that all of us become more thoughtful about the food we put on our plates. The arguments can be fierce, and like our politics, we seem to be getting more divided rather than finding common ground. We can achieve this by reducing waste, closing the nutrient loop by capturing and upcycling by-products, switching production to more efficient crops, and optimizing production. In times like these, we must rely on human ingenuity and look for technology solutions, inventions, and discoveries to deal with current and expected challenges. Yet people love eating meat. Even with high-quality feed, livestock must eat several times their own body weight during growth. By 2050 the world’s population will reach 9.1 billion, 34 percent higher than today. Canada can be a leader in a co-ordinated, effective response to this slow-burning crisis. Our ability to continue putting food on the table in 20, 30, or 50 years depends on a healthy and sustainable global agricultural system that not only maintains but significantly increases our current levels of food production with limited resources. Continuing economic development is also driving up wages in many countries, and these trends hit farming hard. There’s much to be done at the producer end, particularly with respect to post-harvest loses. By 2050, the world’s population is predicted to reach 9 billion people – that is 2 billion more people than now who will need to eat. Role of animal agriculture But it won’t be easy. For most of our history we have been blinded by the overzealous imperative of more, more, more in agriculture—clearing more land, growing more crops, using more resources. This issue contains papers (with one exception) presented at an OECD meeting on the challenge of feeding the world population by 2050. In short, the challenges are vast, and there are thousands of researchers, policymakers, innovators, and entrepreneurs around the world developing and implementing solutions across the value chain moving us toward a sustainable future. Copyright © 2019 Asian Productivity Organization. [7] https://www.circleofblue.org/2015/world/groundwater-depletion-stresses-majority-of-worlds-largest-aquifers/ As we steer our grocery carts down the aisles of our supermarkets, the choices we make will help decide the future. By 2050, the world's population will have reached 9 billion. Our work at Tiny Farms sits at the intersection of these approaches. This is a pivotal moment when we face unprecedented challenges to food security and the preservation of our global environment. At the same time, many countries have growing middle classes, which means more money to spend on food, especially meat. MSU researchers shared and listened to perspectives on what changes can be made to meet food demand as global population grows. Livestock production is the most resource intensive of all our agricultural practices and the least efficient. The world’s population will grow from almost 7 billion now to over 9 billion in 2050. However, this is a new sector and developing very rapidly. Production will have to far outpace population growth as the developing world grows prosperous enough to eat more meat. All rights reserved. This is particularly important to support the booming aquaculture sector that relies heavily on fishmeal. To raise livestock, we’ve taken over even more land, an area roughly the size of Africa. The projections show that feeding a world population of 9.1 billion people in 2050 would require raising overall food production by some 70 percent between 2005/07 and 2050. Organic farming can also greatly reduce the use of water and chemicals—by incorporating cover crops, mulches, and compost to improve soil quality, conserve water, and build up nutrients. Feeding the Population by 2050 Labor shortages, environmental impacts, resource constraints and more extreme weather conditions are already threatening global food security. With 33% of the crops grown already heading to animal feedlots, there is little room to grow, and it would be much better to divert some of that cropland back to human food. Only 55 percent of food-crop calories directly nourish people. New CRISPR gene-editing tools offer the potential to quickly and easily develop whole lines of designer crops, optimized for resilience in shifting environments, higher yields, and resistance to pests and blights. If these trends continue, the double whammy of population growth and richer diets will require us to roughly double the amount of crops we grow by 2050. Those who favor conventional agriculture talk about how modern mechanization, irrigation, fertilizers, and improved genetics can increase yields to help meet demand. The tradeoffs are higher energy use (after all, the sun powers photosynthesis for free), and limited crop options. We work to offer objective, evidence-based information in an accessible manner for all. Designed by Elegant Themes | Powered by WordPress. Indoor agriculture can be practiced in cities, is extremely productive, and impervious to weather. Feeding 9 billion by 2050. Feeding nine billion people by 2050 would be much more tangible if more of the crops we grew ended up in the stomachs of humans. Step Four: Shift Diets It would be far easier to feed nine billion people by 2050 if more of the crops we grew ended up in human stomachs. By 2050 the world’s population will reach 9.1 billion, 34 percent higher than today. It would be far easier to feed nine billion people by 2050 if more of the crops we grew ended up in human stomachs. Why? Second, the other key ingredient in farming food is water. There is a big shortfall between the amount of food we produce today and the amount needed to feed everyone in 2050. We can look at the example of droughts, which are increasingly common and severe as weather patterns shift and temperatures rise. Not only must we increase our food production, we must do so with dwindling resources, particularly water, arable land, and wild fish stocks, in the face of climate change and with increasingly expensive labor. January 23, 2021 Khalid Al Mouahidi News 0. Feeding 9+Billion The Problem is not only quantitative but also qualitative. Feeding this growing demand will entail increased production, i.e., growing more grains, fruit, and vegetables; raising more livestock, harvesting more fish; and collecting more eggs and milk. The meat cultures still need to be “fed” but have significantly higher growth efficiencies than raising whole animals. This paper was part of a workshop sponsored by the OECD Co-operative Research Programme on Biological Resource Management for Sustainable Agricultural Systems. Urbanization will continue at an accelerated pace, and about 70 percent of the world’s population will be urban (compared to 49 percent today). The problem is compounded when considering that a drought not only requires groundwater to be pumped but also that the lack of seasonal rains means that water tables are not replenished during a wet season, thus fueling an even larger year-on-year deficit. Precision agriculture basically means “data meets farming.” A combination of aerial imaging from drones, aircraft, and satellites, plus data from in-field sensors, is used to make fine-grained decisions about nutrient application and irrigation. The future food challenge George Steinmetz’s big-picture approach reveals the landscapes of industrial food. Feeding 9 Billion. Feeding nine billion by 2050. Since 1992, the amount of farmland under cultivation has been roughly stable around 49 million km2 according to the World Bank [3], but even this seeming stability is misleading. [22] https://justforall.com/ Feeding 9 billion by 2050 – Putting fish back on the menu. Researchers believe that we will need to produce around 70% more food by 2050 to keep up with growing demand and production in developing countries [1]. In rich countries most of that waste occurs in homes, restaurants, or supermarkets. Through this lens, the future of food looks bright. So what is the future of food? Agriculture also accelerates the loss of biodiversity. [13] https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.4319/lo.2012.57.3.0698 With 9B Mouths to Feed by 2050, We Have to Get Busy Now Feeding the world of tomorrow is technologically feasible with existing tools (and some creative thinking). Preparing for the future is always exciting and challenging. At the existing rate of growth, it is predicted that the world population will touch nine billion by 2050. We need to find a balance between producing more food and sustaining the planet for future generations. It’ll just take some work. See more; Food Security (2015) 7(2) 261-274 The latter is an organization brings together a litany of industry and academic leaders for one week each year to tackle the problem of feeding 9 billion people by 2050. Unfortunately the debate over how to address the global food challenge has become polarized, pitting conventional agriculture and global commerce against local food systems and organic farms. We are a food security initiative based out of the University of Guelph providing insight, outreach & education around issues of food, agriculture & hunger globally. It would be far easier to feed 9 billion people by year 2050 if more of the crops we grow are fed to people instead of livestock. [12] https://www.nature.com/news/crop-pests-advancing-with-global-warming-1.13644 Unfortunately, agriculture is also a top contributor to climate change, with 7% of global greenhouse gases produced by livestock [14], while deforestation for grazing and crop production results in another 25% of greenhouse gas emissions at the same time as it destroys one of the most important carbon sinks, according the Climate Institute [15]. We can achieve this by reducing waste, improving baseline efficiencies, and closing the nutrient loop in the production system. [24] https://oceanhuggerfoods.com/ The picture that I have painted here is not optimistic. And there are even longer-term effects. Supply chains will be tracked using blockchains, and drones will work with connected hardware to oversee farms and deliver targeted doses of fertilizers and pesticides, while smart tractors plant intricate patterns of seeds chosen to thrive in specific soil chemistry. [14] http://www.fao.org/docrep/018/ar591e/ar591e.pdf By 2050 there will be over 9 billion people on the planet, but will our current food systems be able to feed everyone? [20] http://beyondmeat.com/ Today, only 55% of the world's crop calories are fed to people directly. The magazine thanks The Rockefeller Foundation and members of the National Geographic Society for their generous support of this series of articles. Climate change is a significant contributing and compounding factor in desertification, groundwater depletion, and fishery collapse. The 9 billion people projected to inhabit the Earth by 2050 need not starve in order to preserve the environment, says a major report on sustainability out this week. He described the challenge of feeding the world as immense, with need for rapid increases in global food, feed and biofuel production to feed a global population of 9 billion people by 2050. [3] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.AGRI.K2?end=2015&start=1961&view=chart Today only 55 percent of the world’s crop calories feed people directly; the rest are fed to livestock (about 36 percent) or turned into biofuels and industrial products (roughly 9 percent). The land that we are living on and farming is rapidly being degraded. When we think about threats to the environment, we tend to picture cars and smokestacks, not dinner. 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